Timing the Stock Market Top

We follow a simple stock market investing strategy: stay invested in stocks as long as you don’t expect a recession within the next 6-12 months. Tactically, we also aim to short the stock market as a recession approaches. However, timing the stock market top is notoriously difficult. Selling stocks in anticipation of a recession could… Read More

G20 Osaka 19: US-China Trade War Update

At the G20 meeting in Osaka, the US and China agreed to a trade war truce, whereby no additional tariffs would be levied, and to continue talks, which would eventually result in a cancellation of all tariffs.¬†Further, China made the concession to potentially buy more US farm goods, while US made the concession to potentially… Read More

Bear Market in US Stocks?

S&P 500 (SPY) reached the peak in April 2019, and still remains near the peak. However, the financial sector (XLF), the industrial sector (XLI), the materials sectors (XLB), and the consumer staples sector (XLP) all peaked in January 2018, while the energy sector (XLE) continues the downtrend since 2014. The healthcare sector (XLV) peaked in… Read More

Emerging Markets Breakout?

The US-China trade negotiations are entering the final stage, and it appears that the trade deal will be reached. If in fact, the trade deal in announced, and it removes the barriers to global growth, emerging market stocks will be the primary beneficiary. Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has been anticipating the positive outcome of the… Read More