via Timing the Stock Market Top
Timing the Stock Market Top
We follow a simple stock market investing strategy: stay invested in stocks as long as you don’t expect a recession within the next 6-12 months. Tactically, we also aim to short the stock market as a recession approaches. However, timing the stock market top is notoriously difficult. Selling stocks in anticipation of a recession could… Read More
G20 Osaka 19: US-China Trade War Update
At the G20 meeting in Osaka, the US and China agreed to a trade war truce, whereby no additional tariffs would be levied, and to continue talks, which would eventually result in a cancellation of all tariffs. Further, China made the concession to potentially buy more US farm goods, while US made the concession to potentially… Read More
Bear Market in US Stocks?
S&P 500 (SPY) reached the peak in April 2019, and still remains near the peak. However, the financial sector (XLF), the industrial sector (XLI), the materials sectors (XLB), and the consumer staples sector (XLP) all peaked in January 2018, while the energy sector (XLE) continues the downtrend since 2014. The healthcare sector (XLV) peaked in… Read More
Emerging Markets Breakout?
The US-China trade negotiations are entering the final stage, and it appears that the trade deal will be reached. If in fact, the trade deal in announced, and it removes the barriers to global growth, emerging market stocks will be the primary beneficiary. Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has been anticipating the positive outcome of the… Read More
S&P 500 Approaching the Major Resistance: Time to Sell?
The stock market (S&P 500) is nearing the level at which it started the major correction in early December of 2018 – right around 2800. Note, since late December of 2018, the stock market has surged, in an apparent V-shape recovery. So, is it time to take some profits, or even go short, or just… Read More
The Fed: Turning Point?
The Federal Funds futures for January 2021 implies the Fed rate of 2.16% for December 2020. The current Fed rate is 2.40%. Thus, the market expects that the Fed’s tightening cycle ended in December 2018, and the next move will likely be 0.25% down. What are the implications for the financial markets? US dollar depreciation?… Read More
