Global Academic View

Global Macro Investment Research and Editorials

Key Indicators

December 2020

Money Supply M1 (Will eventually cause inflation? USD devaluation? Liquidity trap? Fiscal stimulus key.)

10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate (expected inflation rising, almost at 2% – symmetric 2% target)

10-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security (expected inflation rising faster than nominal interest rates due to the Fed QE – real interest rates negative)

10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury  (yield curve widening Рshort term rates near zero while long term rates rising Рgradual recovery Рfiscal stimulus/vaccine)

Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Major Currencies, Goods (DISCONTINUED) (third USD spike over, USD down-cyle approaching?)

Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Advanced Foreign Economies, Goods and Services (USD depeciating)

Unemployment Rate (policy support ends at full employment)

Federal Reserve expected to hike by 25 basis points: not in a foreseeable future – at least November 2025.

%d bloggers like this: