Money Supply M1 (Will eventually cause inflation? USD devaluation? Liquidity trap? Fiscal stimulus key.)
10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate (expected inflation rising, almost at 2% – symmetric 2% target)
10-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security (expected inflation rising faster than nominal interest rates due to the Fed QE – real interest rates negative)
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury (yield curve widening – short term rates near zero while long term rates rising – gradual recovery – fiscal stimulus/vaccine)
Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Major Currencies, Goods (DISCONTINUED) (third USD spike over, USD down-cyle approaching?)
Unemployment Rate (policy support ends at full employment)
Federal Reserve expected to hike by 25 basis points: not in a foreseeable future – at least November 2025.