The week following the 6% bounce from the 20% correction drawdown was mostly muted, and the 4100 support level held. The liquidity risk receded, the credit risk decreased, and the recession probability decreased. However, the inflation expectations increased mostly due to the rising oil prices, which caused the increase in the monetary policy tightening expectations across board by about 25bpt. Most macro indicators point to the continuation of the bounce. The risk: spiking oil prices and the continuing increase in inflation expectations.
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