We still don’t have the official winner of the US election, but the predictit odds currently show 86% chance that Biden will become the next US president, which was also the consensus expectation prior to the election, based on polls.
However, early in the election night, it became obvious that the pre-election polls were overestimating Biden victory. When Trump officially won Florida, the odds of winning significantly changed in Trump’s favor, as much as 80% chance of winning. At the same time, the stock market broke the pre-election downtrend and continued rising. Here is the 3-day chart of S&P 500 futures:
Trump has been the most effective stock market cheerleader since November 2016, when he won the election, and he made the promise that the US stock market will be near all-time record level on the 2020 election night. So, it is obvious that the stock market would cheer for Trump.
However, even as Trump’s odds of winning faded, the stock market continues to rise. The question is: can US stocks continue to rise without it’s main cheerleader, Trump? Will the Trump’s stock market bubble burst as Biden becomes the official President-elect?