I published my predictions for the housing bubble bust in 2005 and over the next 2 years my eyes were glued to the featured image of this article – the enormous wave of resets for the subprime mortgages in 2008, followed by the second wave of resets for option adjustable rate mortgages. This chart was there for everybody to see – and yet nobody cared. The Fed led by Greenspan ignored it, the stock market investors ignored it, and regular people continued buying investment properties, refinancing mortgages, and consuming excessively. In 2007, I was even starting to doubt my original prediction. But, we know how everything ended. Here is the chart:
Fast forward to 2020, and we have a very similar situation. The medical scientists are predicting the second wave of the coronavirus infections for the fall, and yet nobody seems to care. Here is the chart for the US (but note the predictions are even more dire for many other countries.) I’m getting that 2007 feeling again.